Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Red Lions vs MAFCO — Super League 2026

Red Lions
Red Lions
FT
1 – 2
MAFCO
MAFCO
9/12/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Red Lions38%
×Draw30%
MAFCO31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Lions
1.09
MAFCO
0.96

Red Lions creates 14% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 80 away

creates per match

Red Lions
0.88
MAFCO
0.91

allows per match

Red Lions
1.00
MAFCO
1.31

finishing

Red Lions+0.00on par
MAFCO+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Lions ↓

MAFCO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Red Lions or draw
69%
Red Lions or MAFCO
70%
Draw or MAFCO
62%

Winning margin

Red Lions wins by 2+
15%
MAFCO wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Red Lions 1+ goals
66%
Red Lions 2+ goals
30%
Red Lions 3+ goals
10%
MAFCO 1+ goals
62%
MAFCO 2+ goals
25%
MAFCO 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Red Lions (draw refunded)
55%
MAFCO (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Lions at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

MAFCO away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Lions attack 0.88 + MAFCO defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

MAFCO attack 0.91 + Red Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Red Lions scores more
38%
level
30%
MAFCO scores more
31%

Red Lions at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Lions vs MAFCO

MAFCO beat Red Lions 2-1 in Super League on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.