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Red Lions vs Extreme — Super League 2026

Red Lions
Red Lions
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Extreme
Extreme
10/21/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Balaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Red Lions48%
×Draw32%
Extreme21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Lions
1.14
Extreme
0.64

Red Lions creates 78% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 15 away

creates per match

Red Lions
0.88
Extreme
0.27

allows per match

Red Lions
1.00
Extreme
1.40

finishing

Red Lions+0.00on par
Extreme+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Lions ↓

Extreme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Red Lions or draw
79%
Red Lions or Extreme
68%
Draw or Extreme
52%

Winning margin

Red Lions wins by 2+
21%
Extreme wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Red Lions 1+ goals
68%
Red Lions 2+ goals
32%
Red Lions 3+ goals
11%
Extreme 1+ goals
47%
Extreme 2+ goals
14%
Extreme 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Red Lions (draw refunded)
70%
Extreme (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Lions at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Extreme away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Lions attack 0.88 + Extreme defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Extreme attack 0.27 + Red Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Red Lions scores more
48%
level
32%
Extreme scores more
21%

Red Lions at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Red Lions 2–1 Extreme

Red Lions beat Extreme 2-1 in Super League on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Balaka Stadium in Balaka.