Red Lions vs Be Forward Wanderers

Red Lions

Preview

12:30

Be Forward Wanderers

2/7/2027

Super League · Round 29

Big match

45%

Be Forward Wanderers

model favours

24%31%45%

Red Lions win just 17% against the top half (vs 45% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

0–1

likely score

71%

under 2.5 goals

35%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Red Lions24%

×Draw31%

Be Forward Wanderers45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red LionsExpected goals in this matchBe Forward Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

1.13

Red Lions

0.74

Be Forward Wanderers

1.13

Be Forward Wanderers creates 53% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 82 away

0.88

creates per match

1.26

1.00

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Red Lions

0.88

Be Forward Wanderers

1.26

allows per match

Red Lions

1.00

Be Forward Wanderers

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Lions+0.00on par

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Lions ↓

Be Forward Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Red Lions or draw

55%

Red Lions or Be Forward Wanderers

69%

Draw or Be Forward Wanderers

76%

Winning margin

Red Lions wins by 2+

7%

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Red Lions 1+ goals

52%

Red Lions 2+ goals

17%

Red Lions 3+ goals

4%

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals

68%

Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals

31%

Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Red Lions (draw refunded)

35%

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Lions at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Be Forward Wanderers away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.61 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Lions attack 0.88 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.74

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.26 + Red Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Red Lions scores more

24%

level

31%

Be Forward Wanderers scores more

45%

Be Forward Wanderers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Be Forward Wanderers win just 40% against the top half (vs 71% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Lions

WLWLW

Wanderers

WDDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff