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Be Forward Wanderers vs Red Lions — Super League 2026

Be Forward Wanderers
Be Forward Wanderers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Red Lions
Red Lions
5/29/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Be Forward Wanderers61%
×Draw24%
Red Lions15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be Forward Wanderers
1.71
Red Lions
0.72

Be Forward Wanderers creates 138% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 49 away

creates per match

Be Forward Wanderers
1.95
Red Lions
0.82

allows per match

Be Forward Wanderers
0.63
Red Lions
1.47

finishing

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par
Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be Forward Wanderers ↓

Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Be Forward Wanderers or draw
85%
Be Forward Wanderers or Red Lions
76%
Draw or Red Lions
39%

Winning margin

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+
35%
Red Lions wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals
82%
Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals
51%
Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals
24%
Red Lions 1+ goals
51%
Red Lions 2+ goals
16%
Red Lions 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)
80%
Red Lions (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be Forward Wanderers at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.63 · 82 matches

Red Lions away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.95 + Red Lions defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

Red Lions attack 0.82 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Be Forward Wanderers scores more
61%
level
24%
Red Lions scores more
15%

Be Forward Wanderers at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Be Forward Wanderers 2–1 Red Lions

Be Forward Wanderers beat Red Lions 2-1 in Super League on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.