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Red Bull Salzburg vs SV Elversberg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Marbella Football Center - Sur 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg41%
×Draw20%
SV Elversberg38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
2.14
SV Elversberg
2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
1.95
SV Elversberg
2.33

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
1.79
SV Elversberg
2.33

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
SV Elversberg+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

SV Elversberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
62%
Red Bull Salzburg or SV Elversberg
80%
Draw or SV Elversberg
59%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
23%
SV Elversberg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
88%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
63%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
36%
SV Elversberg 1+ goals
87%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
61%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
52%
SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.95 + SV Elversberg defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.14

SV Elversberg attack 2.33 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
41%
level
20%
SV Elversberg scores more
38%

Red Bull Salzburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Red Bull Salzburg 2–3 SV Elversberg

SV Elversberg beat Red Bull Salzburg 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Marbella Football Center - Sur 1 in San Pedro de Alcántara.