Red Bull Salzburg 1–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Red Bull Salzburg

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

3/26/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg34%

×Draw21%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Fürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

2.08

Red Bull Salzburg

1.79

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

2.08

SpVgg Greuther Fürth creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.95

creates per match

2.38

1.79

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.95

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

2.38

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.79

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

SpVgg Greuther Fürth →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

55%

Red Bull Salzburg or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

79%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

66%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

17%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

83%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

53%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

26%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

87%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

61%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

43%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.95 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.79

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 2.38 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

34%

level

21%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

45%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Fürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff