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Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach — Bundesliga 2018

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
SCR Altach
SCR Altach
10/19/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Round 10Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg65%
×Draw20%
SCR Altach15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
2.11
SCR Altach
0.92

Red Bull Salzburg creates 129% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 129 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
2.62
SCR Altach
0.96

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
0.88
SCR Altach
1.60

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
SCR Altach+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

SCR Altach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
85%
Red Bull Salzburg or SCR Altach
80%
Draw or SCR Altach
35%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
41%
SCR Altach wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
88%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
62%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
35%
SCR Altach 1+ goals
60%
SCR Altach 2+ goals
23%
SCR Altach 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
81%
SCR Altach (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 128 matches

SCR Altach away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.60 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.62 + SCR Altach defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.11

SCR Altach attack 0.96 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
65%
level
20%
SCR Altach scores more
15%

Red Bull Salzburg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach

Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach drew 2-2 in Bundesliga on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Salzburg.