Red Bull Salzburg 0–1 Rapid Vienna: Result & Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rapid Vienna

M. Seidl 69'

3/15/2026

Bundesliga · Championship Group - 23Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg57%

×Draw21%

Rapid Vienna22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchRapid Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.19

Red Bull Salzburg

2.04

Rapid Vienna

1.19

Red Bull Salzburg creates 71% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 132 away

2.62

creates per match

1.49

0.88

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.62

Rapid Vienna

1.49

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

0.88

Rapid Vienna

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Rapid Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Rapid Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

78%

Red Bull Salzburg or Rapid Vienna

79%

Draw or Rapid Vienna

43%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

34%

Rapid Vienna wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

87%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

60%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

33%

Rapid Vienna 1+ goals

70%

Rapid Vienna 2+ goals

33%

Rapid Vienna 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

72%

Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 128 matches

Rapid Vienna away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.62 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.04

Rapid Vienna attack 1.49 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

57%

level

21%

Rapid Vienna scores more

22%

Red Bull Salzburg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55

N. Cvetkovic

Rapid Vienna · D

9.7

Match Events

19'

Jannes Horn

22'

Lukas Grgić

52'

P. Dahl← L. Grgic

53'

A. Ahoussou← J. M. Scholler

62'

C. Bischoff← K. Alajbegovic

63'

Y. Vertessen← D. Redzic

67'

69'

70'

76'

76'

79'

83'

A. Terzic← S. Diabate

83'

K. Onisiwo← K. Konate

83'

J. Antiste← A. Weimann

83'

T. Gulliksen← N. Wurmbrand

90+3'

T. Borkeeiet← R. Amane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RedRapid

Overview

51%Possession49%

19Total Shots11

1.98Expected Goals (xG)1.67

3Corners3

16Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots11

4On Target3

8Off Target4

7Blocked4

11Inside Box9

8Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

449Total Passes440

371Accurate Passes376

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.68Goals Prevented0.68

Discipline

16Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1