Red Bull Salzburg vs Raków Częstochowa

Red Bull Salzburg

CANC

13:00

Raków Częstochowa

7/10/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportzentrum Anif

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg51%

×Draw20%

Raków Częstochowa29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.77

Red Bull Salzburg

2.35

Raków Częstochowa

1.77

Red Bull Salzburg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.95

creates per match

1.75

1.79

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.95

Raków Częstochowa

1.75

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.79

Raków Częstochowa

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Raków Częstochowa →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

71%

Red Bull Salzburg or Raków Częstochowa

80%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa

49%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

31%

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

90%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

68%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

41%

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

83%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

53%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

63%

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.95 + Raków Częstochowa defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.35

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.75 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

51%

level

20%

Raków Częstochowa scores more

29%

Red Bull Salzburg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff