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Red Bull Salzburg vs Olympiakos Piraeus — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
3 – 0
Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus
6/29/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Leerberg-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg50%
×Draw25%
Olympiakos Piraeus25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
1.60
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.05

Red Bull Salzburg creates 52% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
2.00
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.20

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
1.90
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.20

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
75%
Red Bull Salzburg or Olympiakos Piraeus
75%
Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus
50%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
26%
Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
80%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
47%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
22%
Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals
65%
Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals
28%
Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
67%
Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.00 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.20 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
50%
level
25%
Olympiakos Piraeus scores more
25%

Red Bull Salzburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Bull Salzburg vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Red Bull Salzburg beat Olympiakos Piraeus 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 29, 2021.

The match was played at Leerberg-Arena in Kirchdorf in Tirol.