Red Bull Salzburg 4–1 Nice: Result & Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

4 – 1

Nice

8/8/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Alois Latini Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg43%

×Draw22%

Nice35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchNice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.75

Red Bull Salzburg

1.94

Nice

1.75

Red Bull Salzburg creates 11% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 6 away

2.04

creates per match

1.67

1.83

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.04

Nice

1.67

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.83

Nice

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Nice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Nice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

65%

Red Bull Salzburg or Nice

78%

Draw or Nice

57%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

23%

Nice wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

86%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

58%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

30%

Nice 1+ goals

83%

Nice 2+ goals

52%

Nice 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

55%

Nice (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Nice away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.04 + Nice defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.94

Nice attack 1.67 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

43%

level

22%

Nice scores more

35%

Red Bull Salzburg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff