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Red Bull Salzburg vs Monaco — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
1 – 3
Monaco
Monaco
7/3/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportzentrum Anif

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg29%
×Draw23%
Monaco48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
1.40
Monaco
1.85

Monaco creates 32% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
2.00
Monaco
1.80

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
1.90
Monaco
0.80

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
Monaco+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Monaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
52%
Red Bull Salzburg or Monaco
77%
Draw or Monaco
71%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
13%
Monaco wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
75%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
41%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
17%
Monaco 1+ goals
84%
Monaco 2+ goals
55%
Monaco 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
38%
Monaco (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Monaco away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.00 + Monaco defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Monaco attack 1.80 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
29%
level
23%
Monaco scores more
48%

Monaco at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Monaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Bull Salzburg vs Monaco

Monaco beat Red Bull Salzburg 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Anif in Anif.