Red Bull Salzburg 0–2 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Liverpool

Mohamed Salah 58'

N. Keïta 57'

12/10/2019

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 6Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg30%

×Draw23%

Liverpool47%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.79

Red Bull Salzburg

1.40

Liverpool

1.79

Liverpool creates 28% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

1.70

creates per match

1.94

1.65

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.70

Liverpool

1.94

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.65

Liverpool

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Liverpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

53%

Red Bull Salzburg or Liverpool

77%

Draw or Liverpool

70%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

13%

Liverpool wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

75%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

41%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

17%

Liverpool 1+ goals

83%

Liverpool 2+ goals

53%

Liverpool 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

39%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.70 + Liverpool defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.40

Liverpool attack 1.94 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

30%

level

23%

Liverpool scores more

47%

Liverpool at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Alisson

Liverpool · G

8.6

Match Events

51'

53'

57'

58'

68'

P. Daka← Z. Junuzović

75'

M. Okugawa← E. Håland

75'

J. Milner← Roberto Firmino

87'

D. Origi← N. Keïta

90'

M. Ashimeru← D. Szoboszlai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RedLiverpool

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots22

2Corners4

9Fouls4

Shots

11Total Shots22

7On Target7

2Off Target12

2Blocked3

7Inside Box14

4Outside Box8

Passing

42%Possession58%

437Total Passes581

332Accurate Passes473

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls4

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1