Red Bull Salzburg 3–1 Dunajska Streda

Red Bull Salzburg

3 – 1

Dunajska Streda

6/25/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportzentrum Seekirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg45%

×Draw25%

Dunajska Streda30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchDunajska Streda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.25

Red Bull Salzburg

1.58

Dunajska Streda

1.25

Red Bull Salzburg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

2.04

creates per match

0.67

1.83

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.04

Dunajska Streda

0.67

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.83

Dunajska Streda

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Dunajska Streda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Dunajska Streda →

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

70%

Red Bull Salzburg or Dunajska Streda

75%

Draw or Dunajska Streda

55%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

23%

Dunajska Streda wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

79%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

47%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

21%

Dunajska Streda 1+ goals

71%

Dunajska Streda 2+ goals

36%

Dunajska Streda 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

60%

Dunajska Streda (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Dunajska Streda away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.04 + Dunajska Streda defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.58

Dunajska Streda attack 0.67 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

45%

level

25%

Dunajska Streda scores more

30%

Red Bull Salzburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff