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Red Bull Salzburg vs Başakşehir — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Başakşehir
Başakşehir
A. Daghim 54'
T. Turhan 88'
B. Yildirim 40'
7/15/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg37%
×Draw24%
Başakşehir38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
1.48
Başakşehir
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
1.95
Başakşehir
1.20

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
1.79
Başakşehir
1.00

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Başakşehir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
62%
Red Bull Salzburg or Başakşehir
76%
Draw or Başakşehir
63%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
18%
Başakşehir wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
77%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
43%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
19%
Başakşehir 1+ goals
78%
Başakşehir 2+ goals
44%
Başakşehir 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
49%
Başakşehir (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.95 + Başakşehir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Başakşehir attack 1.20 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
37%
level
24%
Başakşehir scores more
38%

Başakşehir at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
B. Yildirim
54'
A. Daghim
61'
O. Adejenughure← Y. Vertessen
61'
J. Werner← A. Daghim
61'
M. Matjasec← E. Baidoo
61'
O. Lukic← B. Mazurek
61'
Riquelme← A. Barry
61'
F. Matijasevic← S. Diabate
61'
L. Traore← D. Schmid
61'
E. Ganser← V. Zabransky
61'
N. Masching← K. Boma
61'
J. Hussauf← N. Veratschnig
61'
B. Ozegovic← C. Zawieschitzky
82'
O. Kemen
88'
T. Turhan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Bull Salzburg vs Başakşehir

Başakşehir beat Red Bull Salzburg 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 15, 2026.

Goals: B. Yildirim (40'), A. Daghim (54'), T. Turhan (88').