Red Bull Salzburg 3–1 Austria Vienna

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Austria Vienna

4/22/2026

Bundesliga · Championship Group - 28Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg58%

×Draw22%

Austria Vienna21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchAustria Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.11

Red Bull Salzburg

2.00

Austria Vienna

1.11

Red Bull Salzburg creates 80% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 134 away

2.62

creates per match

1.34

0.88

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

2.62

Austria Vienna

1.34

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

0.88

Austria Vienna

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Austria Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Austria Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

79%

Red Bull Salzburg or Austria Vienna

78%

Draw or Austria Vienna

42%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

34%

Austria Vienna wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

86%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

59%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

32%

Austria Vienna 1+ goals

67%

Austria Vienna 2+ goals

30%

Austria Vienna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

74%

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 128 matches

Austria Vienna away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.62 + Austria Vienna defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.00

Austria Vienna attack 1.34 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

58%

level

22%

Austria Vienna scores more

21%

Red Bull Salzburg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff