Red Bull Salzburg 1–4 Atletico Madrid

Red Bull Salzburg

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Atletico Madrid

1/29/2025

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 8Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg44%

×Draw24%

Atletico Madrid32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Bull SalzburgExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.39

Red Bull Salzburg

1.67

Atletico Madrid

1.39

Red Bull Salzburg creates 20% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 31 away

1.70

creates per match

1.13

1.65

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.70

Atletico Madrid

1.13

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg

1.65

Atletico Madrid

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Atletico Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Atletico Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw

68%

Red Bull Salzburg or Atletico Madrid

76%

Draw or Atletico Madrid

56%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

23%

Atletico Madrid wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

81%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

50%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

23%

Atletico Madrid 1+ goals

75%

Atletico Madrid 2+ goals

40%

Atletico Madrid 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

58%

Atletico Madrid (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Atletico Madrid away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.65 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.70 + Atletico Madrid defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atletico Madrid attack 1.13 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

44%

level

24%

Atletico Madrid scores more

32%

Red Bull Salzburg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff