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Red Boys Aspelt vs Sporting Bertrange — Cup 2020

Red Boys Aspelt
Red Boys Aspelt
FT
0 – 4
Sporting Bertrange
Sporting Bertrange
9/6/2023CupCup · Preliminary RoundStade de la Frontière d'Gennerwiss

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Red Boys Aspelt4%
×Draw8%
Sporting Bertrange88%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Boys Aspelt
0.70
Sporting Bertrange
3.63

Sporting Bertrange creates 419% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Red Boys Aspelt
0.00
Sporting Bertrange
3.00

allows per match

Red Boys Aspelt
4.25
Sporting Bertrange
1.40

finishing

Red Boys Aspelt+0.00on par
Sporting Bertrange+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Boys Aspelt ↓

Sporting Bertrange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–29%
0–311%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Red Boys Aspelt or draw
12%
Red Boys Aspelt or Sporting Bertrange
92%
Draw or Sporting Bertrange
96%

Winning margin

Red Boys Aspelt wins by 2+
1%
Sporting Bertrange wins by 2+
73%

Team goals

Red Boys Aspelt 1+ goals
50%
Red Boys Aspelt 2+ goals
16%
Red Boys Aspelt 3+ goals
3%
Sporting Bertrange 1+ goals
97%
Sporting Bertrange 2+ goals
87%
Sporting Bertrange 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Red Boys Aspelt (draw refunded)
4%
Sporting Bertrange (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Boys Aspelt at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Sporting Bertrange away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Boys Aspelt attack 0.00 + Sporting Bertrange defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Sporting Bertrange attack 3.00 + Red Boys Aspelt defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Red Boys Aspelt scores more
4%
level
8%
Sporting Bertrange scores more
88%

Sporting Bertrange at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Sporting Bertrange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Red Boys Aspelt 0–4 Sporting Bertrange

Sporting Bertrange beat Red Boys Aspelt 4-0 in Cup on September 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Frontière d'Gennerwiss in Aspelt.