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Red Boys Aspelt vs Progres Niederkorn — Cup 2020

Red Boys Aspelt
Red Boys Aspelt
FT
0 – 8
Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
10/6/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundStade de la Frontière d'Gennerwiss

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Red Boys Aspelt2%
×Draw5%
Progres Niederkorn94%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Boys Aspelt
0.50
Progres Niederkorn
4.19

Progres Niederkorn creates 738% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Red Boys Aspelt
0.00
Progres Niederkorn
4.13

allows per match

Red Boys Aspelt
4.25
Progres Niederkorn
1.00

finishing

Red Boys Aspelt+0.00on par
Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Boys Aspelt ↓

Progres Niederkorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–29%
0–313%
0–414%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–36%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (14%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Red Boys Aspelt or draw
6%
Red Boys Aspelt or Progres Niederkorn
95%
Draw or Progres Niederkorn
98%

Winning margin

Red Boys Aspelt wins by 2+
0%
Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
83%

Team goals

Red Boys Aspelt 1+ goals
39%
Red Boys Aspelt 2+ goals
9%
Red Boys Aspelt 3+ goals
1%
Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
98%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
91%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
76%

Draw no bet

Red Boys Aspelt (draw refunded)
2%
Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Boys Aspelt at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 4.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Boys Aspelt attack 0.00 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Progres Niederkorn attack 4.13 + Red Boys Aspelt defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 4.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Red Boys Aspelt scores more
2%
level
5%
Progres Niederkorn scores more
94%

Progres Niederkorn at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Red Boys Aspelt 0 – 8 Progres Niederkorn

Progres Niederkorn beat Red Boys Aspelt 8-0 in Cup on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Frontière d'Gennerwiss in Aspelt.