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Red Black Egalité vs UN Kaerjeng 97 — Cup 2020

Red Black Egalité
Red Black Egalité
FT
1 – 2
UN Kaerjeng 97
UN Kaerjeng 97
10/6/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Gaston Diderich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Red Black Egalité11%
×Draw16%
UN Kaerjeng 9773%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Black Egalité
0.94
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.62

UN Kaerjeng 97 creates 179% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Red Black Egalité
1.00
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.63

allows per match

Red Black Egalité
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
0.88

finishing

Red Black Egalité+0.00on par
UN Kaerjeng 97+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Black Egalité ↓

UN Kaerjeng 97 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Red Black Egalité or draw
27%
Red Black Egalité or UN Kaerjeng 97
84%
Draw or UN Kaerjeng 97
89%

Winning margin

Red Black Egalité wins by 2+
4%
UN Kaerjeng 97 wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Red Black Egalité 1+ goals
61%
Red Black Egalité 2+ goals
24%
Red Black Egalité 3+ goals
7%
UN Kaerjeng 97 1+ goals
93%
UN Kaerjeng 97 2+ goals
73%
UN Kaerjeng 97 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Red Black Egalité (draw refunded)
14%
UN Kaerjeng 97 (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Black Egalité at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

UN Kaerjeng 97 away — creates 2.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Black Egalité attack 1.00 + UN Kaerjeng 97 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

UN Kaerjeng 97 attack 2.63 + Red Black Egalité defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Red Black Egalité scores more
11%
level
16%
UN Kaerjeng 97 scores more
73%

UN Kaerjeng 97 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "UN Kaerjeng 97 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Black Egalité vs UN Kaerjeng 97

UN Kaerjeng 97 beat Red Black Egalité 2-1 in Cup on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Diderich in Luxembourg.