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Red Black Egalité vs Swift Hesperange — Cup 2020

Red Black Egalité
Red Black Egalité
FT
1 – 5
Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperangeadvanced
10/29/2022CupCup · Round of 32Stade Gaston Diderich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Red Black Egalité7%
×Draw12%
Swift Hesperange81%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Black Egalité
0.83
Swift Hesperange
3.13

Swift Hesperange creates 277% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Red Black Egalité
1.00
Swift Hesperange
3.67

allows per match

Red Black Egalité
2.60
Swift Hesperange
0.67

finishing

Red Black Egalité+0.00on par
Swift Hesperange+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Black Egalité ↓

Swift Hesperange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–210%
0–310%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Red Black Egalité or draw
19%
Red Black Egalité or Swift Hesperange
88%
Draw or Swift Hesperange
93%

Winning margin

Red Black Egalité wins by 2+
2%
Swift Hesperange wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Red Black Egalité 1+ goals
56%
Red Black Egalité 2+ goals
20%
Red Black Egalité 3+ goals
5%
Swift Hesperange 1+ goals
95%
Swift Hesperange 2+ goals
81%
Swift Hesperange 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Red Black Egalité (draw refunded)
8%
Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Black Egalité at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Swift Hesperange away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Black Egalité attack 1.00 + Swift Hesperange defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Swift Hesperange attack 3.67 + Red Black Egalité defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Red Black Egalité scores more
7%
level
12%
Swift Hesperange scores more
81%

Swift Hesperange at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Black Egalité vs Swift Hesperange

Swift Hesperange beat Red Black Egalité 5-1 in Cup on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Diderich in Luxembourg.