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Red Black Egalité vs Alisontia Steinsel — Cup 2020

Red Black Egalité
Red Black Egalité
FT
1 – 0
Alisontia Steinsel
Alisontia Steinsel
10/2/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundStade Gaston Diderich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Red Black Egalité13%
×Draw16%
Alisontia Steinsel71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Black Egalité
1.13
Alisontia Steinsel
2.74

Alisontia Steinsel creates 142% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Red Black Egalité
1.00
Alisontia Steinsel
2.88

allows per match

Red Black Egalité
2.60
Alisontia Steinsel
1.25

finishing

Red Black Egalité+0.00on par
Alisontia Steinsel+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Black Egalité ↓

Alisontia Steinsel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Red Black Egalité or draw
29%
Red Black Egalité or Alisontia Steinsel
84%
Draw or Alisontia Steinsel
87%

Winning margin

Red Black Egalité wins by 2+
5%
Alisontia Steinsel wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Red Black Egalité 1+ goals
68%
Red Black Egalité 2+ goals
31%
Red Black Egalité 3+ goals
11%
Alisontia Steinsel 1+ goals
93%
Alisontia Steinsel 2+ goals
75%
Alisontia Steinsel 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Red Black Egalité (draw refunded)
16%
Alisontia Steinsel (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Black Egalité at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Alisontia Steinsel away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Black Egalité attack 1.00 + Alisontia Steinsel defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Alisontia Steinsel attack 2.88 + Red Black Egalité defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Red Black Egalité scores more
13%
level
16%
Alisontia Steinsel scores more
71%

Alisontia Steinsel at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Alisontia Steinsel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Black Egalité vs Alisontia Steinsel

Red Black Egalité beat Alisontia Steinsel 1-0 in Cup on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Diderich in Luxembourg.