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Red Arrows vs ZESCO United — Super League 2019

Red Arrows
Red Arrows
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ZESCO United
ZESCO United
10/6/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Nkoloma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Red Arrows44%
×Draw30%
ZESCO United26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Arrows
1.18
ZESCO United
0.82

Red Arrows creates 44% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 110 away

creates per match

Red Arrows
1.51
ZESCO United
1.00

allows per match

Red Arrows
0.64
ZESCO United
0.85

finishing

Red Arrows+0.00on par
ZESCO United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Arrows ↓

ZESCO United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Red Arrows or draw
74%
Red Arrows or ZESCO United
70%
Draw or ZESCO United
56%

Winning margin

Red Arrows wins by 2+
19%
ZESCO United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Red Arrows 1+ goals
69%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
33%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
12%
ZESCO United 1+ goals
56%
ZESCO United 2+ goals
20%
ZESCO United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Red Arrows (draw refunded)
63%
ZESCO United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Arrows at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.64 · 111 matches

ZESCO United away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Arrows attack 1.51 + ZESCO United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.18

ZESCO United attack 1.00 + Red Arrows defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Red Arrows scores more
44%
level
30%
ZESCO United scores more
26%

Red Arrows at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Red Arrows 2–0 ZESCO United

Red Arrows beat ZESCO United 2-0 in Super League on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Nkoloma Stadium in Lusaka.