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Red Arrows vs Nkwazi — Super League 2019

Red Arrows
Red Arrows
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nkwazi
Nkwazi
10/26/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Nkoloma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Red Arrows48%
×Draw30%
Nkwazi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Arrows
1.22
Nkwazi
0.73

Red Arrows creates 67% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Red Arrows
1.51
Nkwazi
0.82

allows per match

Red Arrows
0.64
Nkwazi
0.93

finishing

Red Arrows+0.00on par
Nkwazi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Arrows ↓

Nkwazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Red Arrows or draw
78%
Red Arrows or Nkwazi
70%
Draw or Nkwazi
52%

Winning margin

Red Arrows wins by 2+
21%
Nkwazi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Red Arrows 1+ goals
70%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
34%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
12%
Nkwazi 1+ goals
52%
Nkwazi 2+ goals
17%
Nkwazi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Red Arrows (draw refunded)
68%
Nkwazi (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Arrows at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.64 · 111 matches

Nkwazi away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Arrows attack 1.51 + Nkwazi defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.22

Nkwazi attack 0.82 + Red Arrows defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Red Arrows scores more
48%
level
30%
Nkwazi scores more
22%

Red Arrows at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Red Arrows 1–0 Nkwazi

Red Arrows beat Nkwazi 1-0 in Super League on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Nkoloma Stadium in Lusaka.