Red Arrows 3–1 Mutondo Stars: Result & Stats

Red Arrows

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Mutondo Stars

12/22/2023

Super League · Round 17Nkoloma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Red Arrows53%

×Draw30%

Mutondo Stars17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red ArrowsExpected goals in this matchMutondo Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.58

Red Arrows

1.27

Mutondo Stars

0.58

Red Arrows creates 119% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 51 away

1.51

creates per match

0.53

0.64

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Red Arrows

1.51

Mutondo Stars

0.53

allows per match

Red Arrows

0.64

Mutondo Stars

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Arrows+0.00on par

Mutondo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Arrows ↓

Mutondo Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Red Arrows or draw

83%

Red Arrows or Mutondo Stars

70%

Draw or Mutondo Stars

47%

Winning margin

Red Arrows wins by 2+

25%

Mutondo Stars wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Red Arrows 1+ goals

72%

Red Arrows 2+ goals

36%

Red Arrows 3+ goals

14%

Mutondo Stars 1+ goals

44%

Mutondo Stars 2+ goals

12%

Mutondo Stars 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Red Arrows (draw refunded)

76%

Mutondo Stars (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Arrows at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.64 · 111 matches

Mutondo Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Arrows attack 1.51 + Mutondo Stars defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mutondo Stars attack 0.53 + Red Arrows defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Red Arrows scores more

53%

level

30%

Mutondo Stars scores more

17%

Red Arrows at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff