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Mutondo Stars vs Red Arrows — Super League 2019

Mutondo Stars
Mutondo Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Red Arrows
Red Arrows
5/2/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31Arthur Davies Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mutondo Stars34%
×Draw32%
Red Arrows35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutondo Stars
0.96
Red Arrows
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 111 away

creates per match

Mutondo Stars
1.02
Red Arrows
0.99

allows per match

Mutondo Stars
0.96
Red Arrows
0.90

finishing

Mutondo Stars+0.00on par
Red Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutondo Stars ↓

Red Arrows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mutondo Stars or draw
65%
Mutondo Stars or Red Arrows
68%
Draw or Red Arrows
66%

Winning margin

Mutondo Stars wins by 2+
12%
Red Arrows wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mutondo Stars 1+ goals
62%
Mutondo Stars 2+ goals
25%
Mutondo Stars 3+ goals
7%
Red Arrows 1+ goals
62%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
25%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mutondo Stars (draw refunded)
50%
Red Arrows (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutondo Stars at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Red Arrows away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.90 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutondo Stars attack 1.02 + Red Arrows defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Red Arrows attack 0.99 + Mutondo Stars defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mutondo Stars scores more
34%
level
32%
Red Arrows scores more
35%

Red Arrows at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mutondo Stars 1 – 0 Red Arrows

Mutondo Stars beat Red Arrows 1-0 in Super League on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Arthur Davies Stadium in Kitwe.