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Red Arrows vs Kabwe Warriors — Super League 2019

Red Arrows
Red Arrows
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kabwe Warriors
Kabwe Warriors
1/25/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Nkoloma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Red Arrows47%
×Draw30%
Kabwe Warriors23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Arrows
1.22
Kabwe Warriors
0.77

Red Arrows creates 58% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Red Arrows
1.51
Kabwe Warriors
0.90

allows per match

Red Arrows
0.64
Kabwe Warriors
0.92

finishing

Red Arrows+0.00on par
Kabwe Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Arrows ↓

Kabwe Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Red Arrows or draw
77%
Red Arrows or Kabwe Warriors
70%
Draw or Kabwe Warriors
53%

Winning margin

Red Arrows wins by 2+
21%
Kabwe Warriors wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Red Arrows 1+ goals
70%
Red Arrows 2+ goals
34%
Red Arrows 3+ goals
12%
Kabwe Warriors 1+ goals
54%
Kabwe Warriors 2+ goals
18%
Kabwe Warriors 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Red Arrows (draw refunded)
67%
Kabwe Warriors (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Arrows at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.64 · 111 matches

Kabwe Warriors away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.92 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Arrows attack 1.51 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22

Kabwe Warriors attack 0.90 + Red Arrows defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Red Arrows scores more
47%
level
30%
Kabwe Warriors scores more
23%

Red Arrows at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Red Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Arrows vs Kabwe Warriors

Red Arrows and Kabwe Warriors drew 1-1 in Super League on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Nkoloma Stadium in Lusaka.