Recreativo Huelva 2–2 Sevilla Atletico

Recreativo Huelva

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sevilla Atletico

9/13/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Nuevo Colombino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Recreativo Huelva49%

×Draw28%

Sevilla Atletico23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo HuelvaExpected goals in this matchSevilla Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.80

Recreativo Huelva

1.33

Sevilla Atletico

0.80

Recreativo Huelva creates 66% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

1.13

creates per match

0.65

0.95

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Recreativo Huelva

1.13

Sevilla Atletico

0.65

allows per match

Recreativo Huelva

0.95

Sevilla Atletico

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo Huelva ↓

Sevilla Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Recreativo Huelva or draw

77%

Recreativo Huelva or Sevilla Atletico

72%

Draw or Sevilla Atletico

51%

Winning margin

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+

23%

Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals

74%

Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals

38%

Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals

15%

Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals

55%

Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals

19%

Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)

69%

Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo Huelva at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Sevilla Atletico away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.13 + Sevilla Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sevilla Atletico attack 0.65 + Recreativo Huelva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Recreativo Huelva scores more

49%

level

28%

Sevilla Atletico scores more

23%

Recreativo Huelva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Recreativo Huelva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff