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Recreativo Huelva vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
4/28/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Estadio Nuevo Colombino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Recreativo Huelva46%
×Draw26%
Linares Deportivo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo Huelva
1.48
Linares Deportivo
1.09

Recreativo Huelva creates 36% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Recreativo Huelva
1.13
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

Recreativo Huelva
0.95
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo Huelva ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Recreativo Huelva or draw
72%
Recreativo Huelva or Linares Deportivo
74%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
54%

Winning margin

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
23%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
77%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
43%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
19%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
66%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
30%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
62%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo Huelva at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.13 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + Recreativo Huelva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Recreativo Huelva scores more
46%
level
26%
Linares Deportivo scores more
28%

Recreativo Huelva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Recreativo Huelva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recreativo Huelva vs Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Recreativo Huelva 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Colombino in Huelva.