Recreativo Huelva 1–1 Cordoba: Result & Stats

Recreativo Huelva

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cordoba

1/21/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Estadio Nuevo Colombino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Recreativo Huelva31%

×Draw27%

Cordoba42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo HuelvaExpected goals in this matchCordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.31

Recreativo Huelva

1.09

Cordoba

1.31

Cordoba creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.13

creates per match

1.68

0.95

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Recreativo Huelva

1.13

Cordoba

1.68

allows per match

Recreativo Huelva

0.95

Cordoba

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo Huelva ↓

Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Recreativo Huelva or draw

58%

Recreativo Huelva or Cordoba

73%

Draw or Cordoba

69%

Winning margin

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+

12%

Cordoba wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals

66%

Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals

30%

Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals

10%

Cordoba 1+ goals

73%

Cordoba 2+ goals

38%

Cordoba 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)

43%

Cordoba (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo Huelva at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.13 + Cordoba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Cordoba attack 1.68 + Recreativo Huelva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Recreativo Huelva scores more

31%

level

27%

Cordoba scores more

42%

Cordoba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff