Recreativo Huelva 0–3 Castellón: Result & Stats

Recreativo Huelva

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Castellón

H. Medunjanin 74'

De Miguel 67'

Raúl Sánchez 58'

9/23/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio Nuevo Colombino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Recreativo Huelva40%

×Draw29%

Castellón32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo HuelvaExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.03

Recreativo Huelva

1.19

Castellón

1.03

Recreativo Huelva creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

1.13

creates per match

1.11

0.95

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Recreativo Huelva

1.13

Castellón

1.11

allows per match

Recreativo Huelva

0.95

Castellón

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo Huelva ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Recreativo Huelva or draw

68%

Recreativo Huelva or Castellón

71%

Draw or Castellón

60%

Winning margin

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+

17%

Castellón wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals

70%

Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals

33%

Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals

12%

Castellón 1+ goals

64%

Castellón 2+ goals

28%

Castellón 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)

56%

Castellón (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo Huelva at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.13 + Castellón defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Castellón attack 1.11 + Recreativo Huelva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Recreativo Huelva scores more

40%

level

29%

Castellón scores more

32%

Recreativo Huelva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Recreativo Huelva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

27'

41'

58'

64'

José de la Rosa← Josiel Núñez

66'

D. Chirino← Manu Sánchez

67'

De Miguel

71'

Juan Villar← Nacho Heras

71'

Sergio Díez← Antoñito

72'

Borja Granero← Iago Indias

74'

H. Medunjanin

82'

Gorka Iturraspe← Alejandro Gálvez

82'

Víctor Morillo← Caye Quintana

83'

J. de León← Dani Villahermosa

83'

J. Vertrouwd← Sergio Moyita

83'

Julio Gracia← H. Medunjanin

86'

R. Alhassane

90'

R. Sanchez

Recreativo

Castellón

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Abel Gómez

64'▲José de la Rosa←▼Josiel Núñez

71'▲Juan Villar←▼Nacho Heras

71'▲Sergio Díez←▼Antoñito

82'▲Gorka Iturraspe←▼Alejandro Gálvez

82'▲Víctor Morillo←▼Caye Quintana

Recreativo Huelva substitutes

RosaVillarDíezIturraspeMorilloVíctoresDomínguezDíazTorresCaballero

Manager: D. Schreuder

66'▲D. Chirino←▼Manu Sánchez

72'▲Borja Granero←▼Iago Indias

83'▲J. de León←▼Dani Villahermosa

83'▲J. Vertrouwd←▼Sergio Moyita

83'▲Julio Gracia←▼H. Medunjanin

Castellón substitutes

ChirinoGraneroLeónVertrouwdGraciaSchwakeSueroAntónFaléGrønningMiñanaTorner

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Recreativo Huelva 0–3 Castellón

Castellón beat Recreativo Huelva 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 23, 2023.

Goals: Raúl Sánchez (58'), De Miguel (67'), H. Medunjanin (74').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Colombino in Huelva.

Recreativo Huelva vs Castellón — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Recreativo Huelva 0–3 Castellón