Recreativo do Libolo 2–1 Isaac de Benguela

Recreativo do Libolo

FT

2 – 1

Isaac de Benguela

2/12/2023

Girabola · Round 18Estádio Municipal de Calulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo51%

×Draw27%

Isaac de Benguela22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo do LiboloExpected goals in this matchIsaac de Benguela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.84

Recreativo do Libolo

1.44

Isaac de Benguela

0.84

Recreativo do Libolo creates 71% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 29 away

1.08

creates per match

0.79

0.90

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo

1.08

Isaac de Benguela

0.79

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo

0.90

Isaac de Benguela

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

Isaac de Benguela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw

78%

Recreativo do Libolo or Isaac de Benguela

73%

Draw or Isaac de Benguela

49%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+

26%

Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals

76%

Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals

42%

Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals

18%

Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals

57%

Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals

21%

Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)

70%

Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.90 · 106 matches

Isaac de Benguela away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.08 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.44

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.79 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more

51%

level

27%

Isaac de Benguela scores more

22%

Recreativo do Libolo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff