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Recreativo do Libolo vs CD Lunda-Sul — Girabola 2019

Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CD Lunda-Sul
CD Lunda-Sul
10/5/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 3Estádio Mário Álvaro Pacheco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo41%
×Draw31%
CD Lunda-Sul28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo do Libolo
1.11
CD Lunda-Sul
0.86

Recreativo do Libolo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 75 away

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo
1.09
CD Lunda-Sul
0.83

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo
0.90
CD Lunda-Sul
1.13

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par
CD Lunda-Sul+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

CD Lunda-Sul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw
72%
Recreativo do Libolo or CD Lunda-Sul
69%
Draw or CD Lunda-Sul
59%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
17%
CD Lunda-Sul wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
67%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
30%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
10%
CD Lunda-Sul 1+ goals
58%
CD Lunda-Sul 2+ goals
21%
CD Lunda-Sul 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
59%
CD Lunda-Sul (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.90 · 107 matches

CD Lunda-Sul away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.09 + CD Lunda-Sul defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

CD Lunda-Sul attack 0.83 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more
41%
level
31%
CD Lunda-Sul scores more
28%

Recreativo do Libolo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Recreativo do Libolo 1–1 CD Lunda-Sul

Recreativo do Libolo and CD Lunda-Sul drew 1-1 in Girabola on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Mário Álvaro Pacheco in Calulo.