Recreativo do Libolo 2–1 ASA: Result & Stats

Recreativo do Libolo

FT

2 – 1

ASA

1/9/2019

Girabola · Round 11Estádio Municipal de Calulo (Calulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo50%

×Draw31%

ASA19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo do LiboloExpected goals in this matchASA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.62

Recreativo do Libolo

1.21

ASA

0.62

Recreativo do Libolo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 27 away

1.12

creates per match

0.37

0.87

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo

1.12

ASA

0.37

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo

0.87

ASA

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

ASA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw

81%

Recreativo do Libolo or ASA

69%

Draw or ASA

50%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+

23%

ASA wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals

70%

Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals

34%

Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals

12%

ASA 1+ goals

46%

ASA 2+ goals

13%

ASA 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)

73%

ASA (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

ASA away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.12 + ASA defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

ASA attack 0.37 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more

50%

level

31%

ASA scores more

19%

Recreativo do Libolo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff