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Recreativo do Libolo vs Académica do Lobito — Girabola 2019

Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
12/29/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 10Estádio Municipal de Calulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo46%
×Draw30%
Académica do Lobito24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo do Libolo
1.22
Académica do Lobito
0.78

Recreativo do Libolo creates 56% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 100 away

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo
1.12
Académica do Lobito
0.68

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo
0.87
Académica do Lobito
1.32

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par
Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

Académica do Lobito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw
76%
Recreativo do Libolo or Académica do Lobito
70%
Draw or Académica do Lobito
54%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
21%
Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
70%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
34%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
12%
Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
54%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
18%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
66%
Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

Académica do Lobito away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.12 + Académica do Lobito defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Académica do Lobito attack 0.68 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more
46%
level
30%
Académica do Lobito scores more
24%

Recreativo do Libolo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recreativo do Libolo vs Académica do Lobito

Recreativo do Libolo beat Académica do Lobito 1-0 in Girabola on December 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Calulo in Calulo.