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Académica do Lobito vs Recreativo do Libolo — Girabola 2019

Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
FT
0 – 1
Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
5/8/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 25Estádio do Buraco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Académica do Lobito48%
×Draw30%
Recreativo do Libolo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Académica do Lobito
1.22
Recreativo do Libolo
0.74

Académica do Lobito creates 65% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 102 away

creates per match

Académica do Lobito
1.13
Recreativo do Libolo
0.73

allows per match

Académica do Lobito
0.76
Recreativo do Libolo
1.31

finishing

Académica do Lobito+0.00on par
Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Lobito ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Académica do Lobito or draw
78%
Académica do Lobito or Recreativo do Libolo
70%
Draw or Recreativo do Libolo
52%

Winning margin

Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
21%
Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
70%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
34%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
12%
Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
52%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
17%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
68%
Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Lobito at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Lobito attack 1.13 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.73 + Académica do Lobito defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Académica do Lobito scores more
48%
level
30%
Recreativo do Libolo scores more
22%

Académica do Lobito at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Académica do Lobito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Académica do Lobito vs Recreativo do Libolo

Recreativo do Libolo beat Académica do Lobito 1-0 in Girabola on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Buraco in Lobito.