Recreativo da Caála 0–1 Bravos do Maquis FC

Recreativo da Caála

FT

0 – 1

Bravos do Maquis FC

9/22/2019

Girabola · Round 5Estádio Mártires da Canhala (Caála)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Recreativo da Caála47%

×Draw32%

Bravos do Maquis FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo da CaálaExpected goals in this matchBravos do Maquis FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.65

Recreativo da Caála

1.12

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.65

Recreativo da Caála creates 72% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 106 away

1.15

creates per match

0.95

0.35

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Recreativo da Caála

1.15

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.95

allows per match

Recreativo da Caála

0.35

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo da Caála ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Recreativo da Caála or draw

79%

Recreativo da Caála or Bravos do Maquis FC

68%

Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC

53%

Winning margin

Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+

20%

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals

67%

Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals

31%

Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals

10%

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals

48%

Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals

14%

Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)

69%

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo da Caála at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.35 · 48 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo da Caála attack 1.15 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + Recreativo da Caála defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Recreativo da Caála scores more

47%

level

32%

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more

21%

Recreativo da Caála at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Recreativo da Caála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff