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Bravos do Maquis FC vs Recreativo da Caála — Girabola 2019

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
FT
2 – 0
Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
2/16/2020GirabolaGirabola · Round 20Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe (Moxico)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC49%
×Draw29%
Recreativo da Caála22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.27
Recreativo da Caála
0.75

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 50 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.30
Recreativo da Caála
0.74

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.76
Recreativo da Caála
1.24

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Recreativo da Caála →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
78%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Recreativo da Caála
71%
Draw or Recreativo da Caála
51%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
22%
Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
72%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
36%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
14%
Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
53%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
17%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
69%
Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.76 · 104 matches

Recreativo da Caála away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Recreativo da Caála defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Recreativo da Caála attack 0.74 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
49%
level
29%
Recreativo da Caála scores more
22%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Bravos do Maquis FC 2–0 Recreativo da Caála

Bravos do Maquis FC beat Recreativo da Caála 2-0 in Girabola on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe (Moxico).