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Recreativo da Caála vs Benfica Luanda — Girabola 2019

Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
FT
1 – 1
Benfica Luanda
Benfica Luanda
9/14/2014GirabolaGirabola · Round 23Estádio Mártires da Kanhara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Recreativo da Caála45%
×Draw34%
Benfica Luanda22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo da Caála
1.02
Benfica Luanda
0.61

Recreativo da Caála creates 67% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 22 away

creates per match

Recreativo da Caála
1.19
Benfica Luanda
0.82

allows per match

Recreativo da Caála
0.40
Benfica Luanda
0.86

finishing

Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par
Benfica Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo da Caála ↓

Benfica Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Recreativo da Caála or draw
78%
Recreativo da Caála or Benfica Luanda
66%
Draw or Benfica Luanda
55%

Winning margin

Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
18%
Benfica Luanda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
64%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
27%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
8%
Benfica Luanda 1+ goals
46%
Benfica Luanda 2+ goals
13%
Benfica Luanda 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
67%
Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo da Caála at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.40 · 53 matches

Benfica Luanda away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo da Caála attack 1.19 + Benfica Luanda defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Benfica Luanda attack 0.82 + Recreativo da Caála defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Recreativo da Caála scores more
45%
level
34%
Benfica Luanda scores more
22%

Recreativo da Caála at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Recreativo da Caála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recreativo da Caála vs Benfica Luanda

Recreativo da Caála and Benfica Luanda drew 1-1 in Girabola on September 14, 2014.

The match was played at Estádio Mártires da Kanhara in Huambo.