Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2–2 LPS HD Clinceni

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

LPS HD Clinceni

11/4/2023

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadionul Comunal Gheorghe Doja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Recolta Gheorghe Doja51%

×Draw21%

LPS HD Clinceni29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recolta Gheorghe DojaExpected goals in this matchLPS HD Clinceni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.65

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

2.22

LPS HD Clinceni

1.65

Recolta Gheorghe Doja creates 35% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 14 away

1.94

creates per match

1.43

1.86

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

1.94

LPS HD Clinceni

1.43

allows per match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

1.86

LPS HD Clinceni

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recolta Gheorghe Doja+0.00on par

LPS HD Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recolta Gheorghe Doja ↓

LPS HD Clinceni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Recolta Gheorghe Doja or draw

71%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja or LPS HD Clinceni

79%

Draw or LPS HD Clinceni

49%

Winning margin

Recolta Gheorghe Doja wins by 2+

30%

LPS HD Clinceni wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1+ goals

89%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2+ goals

65%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3+ goals

38%

LPS HD Clinceni 1+ goals

81%

LPS HD Clinceni 2+ goals

49%

LPS HD Clinceni 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Recolta Gheorghe Doja (draw refunded)

64%

LPS HD Clinceni (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recolta Gheorghe Doja at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.86 · 66 matches

LPS HD Clinceni away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja attack 1.94 + LPS HD Clinceni defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.22

LPS HD Clinceni attack 1.43 + Recolta Gheorghe Doja defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Recolta Gheorghe Doja scores more

51%

level

21%

LPS HD Clinceni scores more

29%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Recolta Gheorghe Doja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff