Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1–0 Agricola Borcea

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Agricola Borcea

3/7/2026

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadionul Comunal Gheorghe Doja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Recolta Gheorghe Doja45%

×Draw21%

Agricola Borcea34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recolta Gheorghe DojaExpected goals in this matchAgricola Borcea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.76

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

2.05

Agricola Borcea

1.76

Recolta Gheorghe Doja creates 16% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 62 away

1.94

creates per match

1.66

1.86

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

1.94

Agricola Borcea

1.66

allows per match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

1.86

Agricola Borcea

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recolta Gheorghe Doja+0.00on par

Agricola Borcea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recolta Gheorghe Doja ↓

Agricola Borcea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Recolta Gheorghe Doja or draw

66%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja or Agricola Borcea

79%

Draw or Agricola Borcea

55%

Winning margin

Recolta Gheorghe Doja wins by 2+

25%

Agricola Borcea wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 1+ goals

87%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 2+ goals

61%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 3+ goals

33%

Agricola Borcea 1+ goals

83%

Agricola Borcea 2+ goals

52%

Agricola Borcea 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Recolta Gheorghe Doja (draw refunded)

57%

Agricola Borcea (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recolta Gheorghe Doja at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.86 · 66 matches

Agricola Borcea away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.16 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recolta Gheorghe Doja attack 1.94 + Agricola Borcea defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.05

Agricola Borcea attack 1.66 + Recolta Gheorghe Doja defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Recolta Gheorghe Doja scores more

45%

level

21%

Agricola Borcea scores more

34%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Recolta Gheorghe Doja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff