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Recoleta vs Lautaro de Buin — Segunda División 2020

Recoleta
Recoleta
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Lautaro de Buin
Lautaro de Buin
9/29/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Recoleta49%
×Draw23%
Lautaro de Buin28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recoleta
1.76
Lautaro de Buin
1.27

Recoleta creates 39% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 58 away

creates per match

Recoleta
2.00
Lautaro de Buin
1.09

allows per match

Recoleta
1.45
Lautaro de Buin
1.52

finishing

Recoleta+0.00on par
Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recoleta ↓

Lautaro de Buin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Recoleta or draw
72%
Recoleta or Lautaro de Buin
77%
Draw or Lautaro de Buin
51%

Winning margin

Recoleta wins by 2+
26%
Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Recoleta 1+ goals
83%
Recoleta 2+ goals
52%
Recoleta 3+ goals
26%
Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals
72%
Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals
36%
Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Recoleta (draw refunded)
64%
Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recoleta at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Lautaro de Buin away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recoleta attack 2.00 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.76

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.09 + Recoleta defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Recoleta scores more
49%
level
23%
Lautaro de Buin scores more
28%

Recoleta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recoleta vs Lautaro de Buin

Lautaro de Buin beat Recoleta 3-0 in Segunda División on September 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in La Calera.