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Recoleta vs Iberia — Segunda División 2020

Recoleta
Recoleta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Iberia
Iberia
10/30/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 19Estadio Municipal de Recoleta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Recoleta40%
×Draw25%
Iberia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recoleta
1.51
Iberia
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 46 away

creates per match

Recoleta
2.00
Iberia
1.30

allows per match

Recoleta
1.45
Iberia
1.02

finishing

Recoleta+0.00on par
Iberia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recoleta ↓

Iberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Recoleta or draw
65%
Recoleta or Iberia
75%
Draw or Iberia
60%

Winning margin

Recoleta wins by 2+
20%
Iberia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Recoleta 1+ goals
78%
Recoleta 2+ goals
44%
Recoleta 3+ goals
19%
Iberia 1+ goals
75%
Iberia 2+ goals
40%
Iberia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Recoleta (draw refunded)
54%
Iberia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recoleta at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Iberia away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recoleta attack 2.00 + Iberia defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.51

Iberia attack 1.30 + Recoleta defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Recoleta scores more
40%
level
25%
Iberia scores more
35%

Recoleta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Recoleta vs Iberia

Recoleta and Iberia drew 1-1 in Segunda División on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Recoleta in Recoleta.