Recoleta 2–3 Concepción: Result & Stats | Primera B

Recoleta

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Concepción

D. Salazar 85' (pen)

N. Carvajal 16'

J. Ovalle 70'

J. Larrivey 50', 28'

7/25/2025

Primera B · Round 18Estadio Municipal de Recoleta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Recoleta40%

×Draw25%

Concepción35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RecoletaExpected goals in this matchConcepción

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.35

Recoleta

1.45

Concepción

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 18 away

1.34

creates per match

1.39

1.31

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Recoleta

1.34

Concepción

1.39

allows per match

Recoleta

1.31

Concepción

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recoleta+0.00on par

Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recoleta ↓

Concepción →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Recoleta or draw

65%

Recoleta or Concepción

75%

Draw or Concepción

60%

Winning margin

Recoleta wins by 2+

19%

Concepción wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Recoleta 1+ goals

77%

Recoleta 2+ goals

42%

Recoleta 3+ goals

18%

Concepción 1+ goals

74%

Concepción 2+ goals

39%

Concepción 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Recoleta (draw refunded)

53%

Concepción (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recoleta at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 71 matches

Concepción away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recoleta attack 1.34 + Concepción defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Concepción attack 1.39 + Recoleta defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Recoleta scores more

40%

level

25%

Concepción scores more

35%

Recoleta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

16'

22'

28'

35'

39'

39'

42'

46'

F. I. Saavedra Saavedra← J. Espinola

46'

B. Valdivia← F. Manzo

49'

V. Retamal

50'

J. Larrivey

62'

F. I. Saavedra Saavedra

66'

F. Alvarado← V. Retamal

66'

C. Cepeda← J. Flores

66'

U. Ojeda← J. Larrivey

70'

J. Ovalle

76'

D. Salazar← G. Estigarribia

78'

N. Sepulveda← J. Ovalle

78'

C. Escobar← C. Morales

83'

F. Alvarado

85'

D. SalazarPenalty

90+3'

I. Fuenzalida← B. Valdes

Recoleta

Concepción

15

17

5

20

24

▼

Espinola

26

▼

Morales

6

Astete

8

▼

Manzo

19

⚽

▼

Ovalle

7

Gillard

32

⚽2

▼

Larrivey

22

Vargas

2

▼

5

3

14

37

▼

Valdes

8

Martin

17

⚽

Carvajal

10

Arguinare

20

▼

Flores

9

▼

Estigarri

66'▲F. Alvarado←▼V. Retamal

66'▲C. Cepeda←▼J. Flores

76'▲D. Salazar←▼G. Estigarribia

90+3'▲I. Fuenzalida←▼B. Valdes

Recoleta substitutes

1Kirkman12Alvarado18Cepeda6Espinoza21Marin16Salazar28Fuenzalida

Manager: Manuel Antonio Suárez Jiménez

46'▲F. I. Saavedra Saavedra←▼J. Espinola

46'▲B. Valdivia←▼F. Manzo

66'▲U. Ojeda←▼J. Larrivey

78'▲N. Sepulveda←▼J. Ovalle

78'▲C. Escobar←▼C. Morales

Concepción substitutes

25Araya18Saavedra11Valdivia23Ojeda27Sepulveda30Fuentes9Escobar

Match Recap: Recoleta vs Concepción

Concepción beat Recoleta 3-2 in Primera B on July 25, 2025.

Goals: N. Carvajal (16'), J. Larrivey (28', 50'), J. Ovalle (70'), D. Salazar (85' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Recoleta in Recoleta.

Recoleta vs Concepción — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Recoleta vs Concepción