Rebordosa 0–3 Vianense: Result & Stats

Rebordosa

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Vianense

5/10/2026

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 3Complexo Desportivo Azevido

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rebordosa35%

×Draw26%

Vianense40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RebordosaExpected goals in this matchVianense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.40

Rebordosa

1.29

Vianense

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.14

1.67

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Rebordosa

1.00

Vianense

1.14

allows per match

Rebordosa

1.67

Vianense

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rebordosa+0.00on par

Vianense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rebordosa ↓

Vianense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rebordosa or draw

60%

Rebordosa or Vianense

74%

Draw or Vianense

65%

Winning margin

Rebordosa wins by 2+

15%

Vianense wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rebordosa 1+ goals

72%

Rebordosa 2+ goals

37%

Rebordosa 3+ goals

14%

Vianense 1+ goals

75%

Vianense 2+ goals

41%

Vianense 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rebordosa (draw refunded)

47%

Vianense (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rebordosa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Vianense away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rebordosa attack 1.00 + Vianense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Vianense attack 1.14 + Rebordosa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rebordosa scores more

35%

level

26%

Vianense scores more

40%

Vianense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vianense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff