Rebordelo 1–3 Varzim: Result & Stats

Rebordelo

1 – 3

Varzim

10/28/2020

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo de Jogos de Rebordelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rebordelo20%

×Draw20%

Varzim60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RebordeloExpected goals in this matchVarzim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.23

Rebordelo

1.21

Varzim

2.23

Varzim creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

0.80

creates per match

1.25

3.20

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Rebordelo

0.80

Varzim

1.25

allows per match

Rebordelo

3.20

Varzim

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rebordelo+0.00on par

Varzim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rebordelo ↓

Varzim →

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Rebordelo or draw

40%

Rebordelo or Varzim

80%

Draw or Varzim

80%

Winning margin

Rebordelo wins by 2+

Varzim wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Rebordelo 1+ goals

70%

Rebordelo 2+ goals

34%

Rebordelo 3+ goals

12%

Varzim 1+ goals

89%

Varzim 2+ goals

65%

Varzim 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Rebordelo (draw refunded)

25%

Varzim (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rebordelo at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Varzim away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rebordelo attack 0.80 + Varzim defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.21

Varzim attack 1.25 + Rebordelo defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rebordelo scores more

20%

level

20%

Varzim scores more

60%

Varzim at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Varzim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff