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Rebordelo vs Nacional — Taça de Portugal 2018

Rebordelo
Rebordelo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Nacional
Nacionaladvanced
10/18/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rebordelo17%
×Draw17%
Nacional66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rebordelo
1.34
Nacional
2.71

Nacional creates 102% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rebordelo
0.80
Nacional
2.22

allows per match

Rebordelo
3.20
Nacional
1.89

finishing

Rebordelo+0.00on par
Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rebordelo ↓

Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Rebordelo or draw
34%
Rebordelo or Nacional
83%
Draw or Nacional
83%

Winning margin

Rebordelo wins by 2+
7%
Nacional wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Rebordelo 1+ goals
74%
Rebordelo 2+ goals
39%
Rebordelo 3+ goals
15%
Nacional 1+ goals
93%
Nacional 2+ goals
75%
Nacional 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Rebordelo (draw refunded)
21%
Nacional (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rebordelo at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Nacional away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rebordelo attack 0.80 + Nacional defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.34

Nacional attack 2.22 + Rebordelo defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rebordelo scores more
17%
level
17%
Nacional scores more
66%

Nacional at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Rebordelo 1–3 Nacional

Nacional beat Rebordelo 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 18, 2025.