Rebordelo 0–5 Montalegre: Result & Stats

Rebordelo

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Montalegre

9/11/2022

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo de Jogos de Rebordelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rebordelo13%

×Draw16%

Montalegre71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RebordeloExpected goals in this matchMontalegre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.67

Rebordelo

1.04

Montalegre

2.67

Montalegre creates 157% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

0.80

creates per match

2.14

3.20

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Rebordelo

0.80

Montalegre

2.14

allows per match

Rebordelo

3.20

Montalegre

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rebordelo+0.00on par

Montalegre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rebordelo ↓

Montalegre →

0–02%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Rebordelo or draw

29%

Rebordelo or Montalegre

84%

Draw or Montalegre

87%

Winning margin

Rebordelo wins by 2+

Montalegre wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Rebordelo 1+ goals

65%

Rebordelo 2+ goals

28%

Rebordelo 3+ goals

Montalegre 1+ goals

93%

Montalegre 2+ goals

74%

Montalegre 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Rebordelo (draw refunded)

15%

Montalegre (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rebordelo at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Montalegre away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rebordelo attack 0.80 + Montalegre defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Montalegre attack 2.14 + Rebordelo defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Rebordelo scores more

13%

level

16%

Montalegre scores more

71%

Montalegre at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Montalegre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff