Real Zaragoza U19 1–3 Olympique Lyonnais U19

Real Zaragoza U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Olympique Lyonnais U19

Javier Hernández 28'

A. Gouiri 90+5', 69'

T. Thomas 80'

2/12/2020

UEFA Youth League · Play-offsEstadio de la Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real Zaragoza U1948%

×Draw21%

Olympique Lyonnais U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Zaragoza U19Expected goals in this matchOlympique Lyonnais U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.60

Real Zaragoza U19

2.06

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.60

Real Zaragoza U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

2.33

creates per match

2.20

1.00

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Real Zaragoza U19

2.33

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.20

allows per match

Real Zaragoza U19

1.00

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Zaragoza U19+0.00on par

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Zaragoza U19 ↓

Olympique Lyonnais U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Real Zaragoza U19 or draw

70%

Real Zaragoza U19 or Olympique Lyonnais U19

79%

Draw or Olympique Lyonnais U19

52%

Winning margin

Real Zaragoza U19 wins by 2+

28%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Zaragoza U19 1+ goals

87%

Real Zaragoza U19 2+ goals

61%

Real Zaragoza U19 3+ goals

34%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

80%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

47%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Real Zaragoza U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Zaragoza U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Olympique Lyonnais U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Zaragoza U19 attack 2.33 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.06

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.20 + Real Zaragoza U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Zaragoza U19 scores more

48%

level

21%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

30%

Real Zaragoza U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Zaragoza U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

E. Coly

21'

F. Da Silva

28'

Javier Hernández↳ Ivan Azón

48'

L. Artajona

49'

M. Bard

51'

P. Kalulu Kyatengwa

52'

A. Ramon

56'

E. Wissa← B. Barcola

66'

J. Tarroc

68'

A. Gouiri

69'

A. Gouiri

73'

M. Altikulac← A. Minolien

75'

Miguel Puche← Alejandro Vela

80'

T. Thomas↳ F. da Silva

84'

Pablo Cortés← Angel López

89'

M. Garcia

89'

M. Altikulac

89'

Cristian Yus← Jaime Sancho

90+7'

N. Bonnet← E. Coly

90+6'

A. Pontet← M. Mbenga

90+5'

A. Gouiri↳ E. Wissa

Real

Olympique

1

Margueron

3

Bard

5

Kalulu

2

▼

Minolien

4

Lukeba

8

A

Silva

7

▼

Mbenga

9

⚽2

Gouiri

6

⚽

Thomas

10

▼

Coly

11

▼

Barcola

1

Acín

4

⚽

Hernández

3

▼

5

2

8

6

11

▼

Vela

7

▼

Sancho

10

Carbonell

9

A

Azón

Manager: Iván Martínez

75'▲Miguel Puche←▼Alejandro Vela

84'▲Pablo Cortés←▼Angel López

89'▲Cristian Yus←▼Jaime Sancho

Real Zaragoza U19 substitutes

15Puche18Cortés14Yus16Marín17Cobos13Calavia12Serrano

Manager: E. Hély

56'▲E. Wissa←▼B. Barcola

73'▲M. Altikulac←▼A. Minolien

90+7'▲N. Bonnet←▼E. Coly

90+6'▲A. Pontet←▼M. Mbenga

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

18Wissa12Altikulac15Bonnet13Pontet17Lega14Felix16Patouillet

Match Recap: Real Zaragoza U19 vs Olympique Lyonnais U19

Olympique Lyonnais U19 beat Real Zaragoza U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on February 12, 2020.

Goals: Javier Hernández (28'), A. Gouiri (69', 90+5'), T. Thomas (80').

The match was played at Estadio de la Romareda in Zaragoza.

Real Zaragoza U19 vs Olympique Lyonnais U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Zaragoza U19 vs Olympique Lyonnais U19