Real Zaragoza U19 5–0 APOEL U19: Result & Stats

Real Zaragoza U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

APOEL U19

11/6/2019

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundEstadio de la Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real Zaragoza U1972%

×Draw18%

APOEL U1910%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Zaragoza U19Expected goals in this matchAPOEL U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.67

Real Zaragoza U19

2.17

APOEL U19

0.67

Real Zaragoza U19 creates 224% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Real Zaragoza U19

2.33

APOEL U19

0.33

allows per match

Real Zaragoza U19

1.00

APOEL U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Zaragoza U19+0.00on par

APOEL U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Zaragoza U19 ↓

APOEL U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Zaragoza U19 or draw

90%

Real Zaragoza U19 or APOEL U19

82%

Draw or APOEL U19

28%

Winning margin

Real Zaragoza U19 wins by 2+

47%

APOEL U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Real Zaragoza U19 1+ goals

89%

Real Zaragoza U19 2+ goals

64%

Real Zaragoza U19 3+ goals

36%

APOEL U19 1+ goals

49%

APOEL U19 2+ goals

15%

APOEL U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Real Zaragoza U19 (draw refunded)

88%

APOEL U19 (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Zaragoza U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

APOEL U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Zaragoza U19 attack 2.33 + APOEL U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

APOEL U19 attack 0.33 + Real Zaragoza U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Real Zaragoza U19 scores more

72%

level

18%

APOEL U19 scores more

10%

Real Zaragoza U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Real Zaragoza U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Real Zaragoza U19 5–0 APOEL U19

Real Zaragoza U19 beat APOEL U19 5-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de la Romareda in Zaragoza.

Real Zaragoza U19 vs APOEL U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Real Zaragoza U19 5–0 APOEL U19